So as usual the political commentators are now adding their hue and cry to the recent Eastleigh bye election result and if you believe all the comments, they either rationalise down into “a momentous shift in UK politics ” or ” nothing more than a mid term election blip as  result of a protest vote”.

So what is the truth?

It seems to me there are three key factors involved here which are all significant in their own way.

The global economic backdrop.

The coalition policies.

Political trust.

The global economic backdrop is one over which most politicians have little or no influence. Whether it is Cameron huffing and puffing around Europe insisting on demonstrating his power and influence over our European neighbours to his home electorate or Clegg insisting that his lies and deceit were not meant and now his hands are tied in order to hold on to office or Miliband continuing to avoid apologising for the economic policies of his party in office, it seems to me that we are not all in this together nationally or internationally and as usual when people find themselves in difficulty the natural tendency is to look after one’s own. We see this in current economic policy, at home and abroad, which is demonstrably widening the gap between rich and poor and is becoming progressively more and more socially divisive. 

The coalition policies are clearly not working for certain sections of society and this is causing political alienation of large tracts of our society. They intuitively know that if one is economically hidebound then the opportunities for education which can lift one from the deprivation they are experiencing is less and less available. That if they become ill or seriously sick then the opportunities for treatment and recovery in a reasonable time are also limited. They also realise that the safety net of society is being withdrawn across the board as cuts bite so deep that across Maslow’s hierarchy of needs people are more likely to go hungry and  right down to less likely to have their rubbish collected as often,  and ” The Big Society” actually means you are responsible for your own welfare and if you cannot manage then the philanthropic will take up the slack through charitable giving but the state has less and less responsiblity in looking after those of our society in need. This at the same time as witnessing the continued growth and accumulation of wealth by the rich and their siblings generation after generation through privileged education, unpaid internships and the network of wealth which excludes people even though they are both  intelligent and creative.

These, plus the scandals of impropriety, lack of ethics and downright corruption at the top of our public and business world has caused people to have no trust at all in our societal elite. The pigs are in the trough because that feeds their self interest and because they can. The danger which I believe was demonstrated in Eastleigh is that this creates a “political trust vacuum”  and we have seen throughout history this will inevitably be filled with either right or left wing rhetoric as witnessed by the grinning face of the xenophobic and right wing UKIP leader Farage. He is right when he says ” people are listening to what his party has to say”. People are concerned about immigration and the perceived broad link to the economy and their increasing deprivation through the strain on public services and jobs. He is right when he says ” We have a broad spectrum of people who are voting UKIP”,  because they are frightened and because he is playing into that fear.

The answer for the politicians is to lead. Leadership is most importantly about “Authenticity” and “Consistency”. Simply telling the truth however difficult it is for people to hear, being sincere and not just defending the party and oneself when questioned, creating a relationship with the electorate which is personal and real, bracketing egocentricity and ethnocentricity and appealing genuinely to all members of our society whatever their background. I believe if our leaders lead in a genuine and sincere way, even though the public may not like the message they will respect the messenger and may even vote for them again. We are simply crying out for authentic and consistent leadership if only our business and political leaders would realise this their job would be so much easier.